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气候适应性流域管理的综合多危险评估:一个可从尼泊尔中部山区转移的优先级框架
Lalit Pathak1, Kamana Joshi2, Pradeep Ghimire3
1Center of Research for Environment, Energy and Water (CREEW), Kathmandu, Nepal.
The Science of the total environment
|December 23, 2025
概括
本研究提出了一个综合框架,用于评估山区流域的多危险风险,这对于有效的土地利用规划和适应战略至关重要. 该方法优先考虑干预的关键领域,加强脆弱地区的流域管理.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地质科学是地球科学.
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 山区流域面临复杂的,级联的多危险风险,需要综合评估框架来有效适应.
- 现有的方法往往侧重于单一的危险,或缺乏当地水域管理所需的空间精度.
- 喜马拉雅山脉中山流域特别脆弱,因为不断升级的危险和土壤侵蚀加剧了土地利用的快速变化.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一个空间明确的多标准决策分析 (MCDA) 框架,以根据多种危险风险优先考虑山区流域.
- 整合最大 (MaxEnt) 建模,修订的普世土壤损失方程 (RUSLE) 和多时间土地利用分析,以进行全面的风险评估.
- 确定马林流域内需要干预以改善流域管理和适应的关键区域.
主要方法:
- 集成最大 (MaxEnt) 建模用于山体滑坡和火灾易感性映射,实现高AUC值 (分别为0.828和0.798).
- 应用了修订后的普遍土壤损失方程 (RUSLE) 和多时段的土地利用分析 (2000-2022) 来评估侵蚀和土地覆盖的动态.
- 采用多标准决策分析 (MCDA) 框架,整合多来源数据集 (DEM,LULC,气候数据,危险清单) 以确定流域优先级.
主要成果:
- 马林流域的重要部分表现出对山体滑坡 (27.3%),火灾风险 (24.4%) 和严重侵蚀 (32.9%>20t/ha/yr) 的高度易感性.
- 洪水易发区占流域的18.3%,其中24%由MCDA确定需要关键干预,原因是坡和土地使用过渡等因素.
- 敏感性和不确定性分析证实了开发的优先级框架的稳定性和可靠性.
结论:
- 综合的MCDA框架提供了一个可扩展和可转移的方法来优先考虑面临多种危险风险的山区流域.
- 这种方法解决了当前的流域管理中的关键缺口,为地方规模的规划和适应提供了空间明确的见解.
- 该研究强调,全球脆弱的山区迫切需要综合风险评估和有针对性的干预措施.
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