随机分析Mpox流行病学与疫苗接种策略和环境持久性的分析
Faizunnesa Khondaker1,2, Md Kamrujjaman3,4
1Department of Mathematics, University of Dhaka, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.
Scientific reports
|December 23, 2025
概括
马波克斯病毒传播的数学建模显示,疫苗接种和卫生设施的结合对于有效控制疫情至关重要. 这一综合战略显著减轻了疾病传播和疾病负担.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生准备情况 公共卫生准备情况
背景情况:
- 马博克斯疫情对全球健康构成重大挑战.
- 有效的准备和应对策略对于控制传播至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析Mpox传输动态的综合数学模型.
- 调查疫苗接种覆盖率和环境污染对Mpox传播的影响.
- 评估联合干预策略的有效性.
主要方法:
- 对模型定位和稳定性分析的分析性检查.
- 参数估计使用美国Mopox爆发数据 (2022年5月至12月).
- 通过模拟比较和残余分析进行模型验证.
- 全球灵敏度,分叉和最佳控制分析.
- 整合连续时间马尔科夫链 (CTMC) 和随机微分方程 (SDE) 框架.
主要成果:
- 基本的繁殖数量决定了无病和特有平衡的稳定性.
- 敏感性分析确定了影响Mpox传播的关键参数.
- 最佳控制分析表明,联合疫苗接种和卫生战略是最有效的.
- 随机框架提供了对疫情动态的更现实的理解.
结论:
- 综合疫苗接种和卫生设施的多方面的方法对于最佳的Mpox缓解至关重要.
- 疫苗接种提供了个人保护,而卫生设施减少了环境再感染的风险.
- 数学建模为针对Mpox的公共卫生干预提供了关键的见解.
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