中国西部多病原体呼吸道监测:同步循环模式和预测建模
Yusong Liu1, Yong Jing2, Jiaqiang Wang1
1Department of Laboratory Medicine and Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory for Human Disease Gene Study, Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, Sichuan 610072, China.
iScience
|December 24, 2025
概括
随着COVID-19的限制,呼吸道病原体阳性在中国西部升了314%. 这项研究强调了同步的多病原体复苏,并支持综合监测,以更好地应对疫情.
科学领域:
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在中国西部的COVID-19后的呼吸道病原体动态很少被理解.
- 关于长期控制措施后各种呼吸道病原体的复发模式的数据有限.
研究的目的:
- 从2020年1月到2024年12月,描述中国西部14种呼吸道病原体的动态.
- 评估COVID-19限制对病原体流行率和病原体间关系的影响.
- 评估预测模型对预测未来病原体趋势的有效性.
主要方法:
- 使用多重PCR对50,247个呼吸器样本进行分析.
- 对病原体阳性率的统计分析,包括对H1N1和Mycoplasma pneumoniae等特定病原体的百分比增加.
- 相关性分析以确定病原体对之间的时间关联.
- 应用季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型进行12个月的预测.
主要成果:
- 流行病后的病原体阳性总体增加了314%,H1N1 (1,826%) 和Mycoplasma pneumoniae (519%) 的急剧增加显著.
- 人类鼻病毒是最频繁检测到的病原体 (9.05%).
- 与典型模式相反,89%的病原体对表现出积极的时间关联.
- 学校年龄的儿童承担了不成比例的负担,特别是M.肺炎 (30.0%阳性).
- 萨里马模型表现出预测能力,平均绝对百分比误差为15.2%-24.8%.
- 冬季的几个月显示了六种病原体的集中峰值.
结论:
- 长期的控制措施导致了多种呼吸道病原体的同步复苏.
- 调查结果强调需要综合监测系统来监测病原体相互作用.
- 加强疫情准备需要了解单个病原体的动态及其复杂的相互关系.
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