尼日利亚的动物疾病负担,2006-2023年
Ahmad I Al-Mustapha1,2,3, Veronica Adetunji3, Oluwaseun A Ogundijo3
1Department of Veterinary Services, Kwara State Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria.
Transboundary and emerging diseases
|December 24, 2025
概括
尼日利亚面临着高动物疾病负担,预计纽卡斯尔病 (NCD) 和小反动物瘟疫 (PPR) 将增加. 加强监测和兽医投资对于预防和控制战略至关重要.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 动物健康监督 动物健康监督
- 疾病建模 疾病建模
背景情况:
- 可靠的数据对于尼日利亚的动物健康决策和疾病准备是必不可少的.
- 世界动物健康信息系统 (WAHIS) 提供全球动物疾病报告,对国家分析至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用WAHIS数据总结2006-2023年尼日利亚的动物疾病负担.
- 使用ZINB回归模型预测前10个最常报告的动物疾病的年度疫情估计.
主要方法:
- 用描述性统计数据分析了3362份WAHIS报告,详细介绍了9331起疾病爆发.
- 用一个零膨胀负二项式 (ZINB) 回归模型来预测未来的疾病趋势.
- 分析包括病例数,杀,疫苗接种和疫情的空间分布.
主要成果:
- 传染病 (IBD),小动物瘟疫 (PPR) 和传染性牛肺炎 (CBPP) 是最常见的非动物性疾病.
- 高致病性禽流感 (HPAI),纽卡斯尔病 (NCD) 和禽类伤寒在家禽中最常见;牛中CBPP和三虫病最常见.
- 北中部地区报告的疾病负担最高 (20.7%).
- 预测预测到2030年,非传染性疾病,狂犬病和口病 (FMD) 的趋势将会增加.
- 非洲猪瘟 (ASF) 和三虫病的增长速度较慢,而PPR和IBD预计将急剧上升.
结论:
- 尼日利亚面临着相当大的动物疾病负担,可能被低估.
- 迫切需要加强预防和控制战略,包括综合征监测和对兽医基础设施的投资.
- 建议采用跨学科的"一个健康"方法,以改善疾病监测和管理.
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