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死亡率的补偿效应:人类人口的全球分析
Natalia S Gavrilova1, Leonid A Gavrilov1
1NORC at the University of Chicago, 1155 E 60th Street, Chicago, IL60637, USA.
概括
死亡率的补偿效应 (CEM) 显示,人类寿命的趋同仍然稳定,在工业化国家,物种特定寿命 (SSLS) 估计约为95-100年. 这种现象限制了激进的人寿延长的努力.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 死亡补偿效应 (CEM) 描述了人口中晚年死亡率的趋同.
- 这种效应涉及初始死亡率 (R) 和精算衰老率 (Gompertz斜率,α) 之间的权衡,定义了特定物种寿命 (SSLS).
研究的目的:
- 在当代全球种群中估计物种特定寿命 (SSLS).
- 分析死亡补偿效应 (CEM) 随着时间的推移和不同地区的稳定性.
主要方法:
- 对251个国家/地区 (1980-2020年) 的联合国周期缩短寿命表的分析.
- 使用参数和非参数方法估计SSLS.
主要成果:
- 参数和非参数SSLS估计得出了可比的结果.
- 工业化国家显示稳定的SSLS估计 (95-100年),与之前的发现一致.
- 在东亚和东南亚也发现了高SSLS估计值;其他地区的SSLS估计值在75-90岁之间.
结论:
- 死亡的补偿效应 (CEM) 是全球人口的一致规律,保持稳定的趋同点 (SSLS).
- CEM对激进的人类寿命延长构成重大约束,因为增加寿命的努力矛盾地与增加的衰老率有关.
- 尽管年轻人死亡率下降,但特定物种的寿命似乎很强大,并且可以抵抗显著的延长.
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