稳定应力加速降解的可靠性建模方法基于一般化的维纳过程.
Shanshan Li1, Zaizai Yan1, Junmei Jia1
1College of Science, Inner Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot 010051, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 24, 2025
概括
本研究引入了一种新的通用维纳过程模型,以提高对具有非线性降解的产品的可靠性估计和故障时间预测. 改进的模型在加速测试条件下准确预测产品寿命.
科学领域:
- 工程 工程师 工程师 工程师
- 可靠性工程可靠性工程
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
背景情况:
- 产品经常表现出非线性降解,使准确的可靠性估计变得复杂.
- 传统模型可能无法完全捕捉加速应力对降解参数的影响.
- 了解产品退化对于有效的工程维护和可靠性管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种先进的降解模型,用于在恒定应力加速降解测试 (CSADT) 下的非线性行为.
- 提高可靠性估计和故障时间预测的准确性.
- 为了考虑加速应力对漂移和扩散系数的影响.
主要方法:
- 提出了一种新的降解模型,该模型基于一个通用的维纳过程.
- 包含随机效应,以解决个别产品的变化.
- 使用最大概率估计 (MLE) 和预期最大化 (EM) 算法进行参数估计.
- 导出剩余使用寿命的概率密度函数 (PDF).
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型有效地适应非线性降解过程.
- 与现有方法相比,在故障时间预测方面表现出更高的准确性.
- 使用模拟的CSADT数据和压力放松数据进行验证.
- 该模型成功考虑了压力对漂移和扩散参数的影响.
结论:
- 概括的维纳过程模型为具有非线性降解的产品的可靠性分析提供了强大的方法.
- 该方法提供了更准确的故障时间预测,有助于工程维护和可靠性管理.
- 这项工作有助于更好地了解在加速测试条件下的产品降解.
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