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在肯尼亚对人类和动物菌病的综合监测:预测性分析

Samuel Kahariri^1,2,3,4, Lian F Thomas^2,5, Bernard Bett²

¹Directorate of Livestock Policy, Research and Regulations, Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, Nairobi 00625, Kenya.

Tropical medicine and infectious disease

|December 24, 2025

概括

肯尼亚的牛病监测显示,人类的病例远远超过动物病例,只有牛病与人类感染有关. 改善综合监测对于早期检测动物传播疾病至关重要.

科学领域:

兽医公共卫生兽医公共卫生
流行病学流行病学
动物传染病研究研究

背景情况:

兽病是全球主要的动物传染病,对肯尼亚的公共卫生和经济产生重大影响.
这种疾病在肯尼亚的人类和动物群体中引起了大量的发病率和经济损失.

研究的目的:

分析2014-2022年肯尼亚人类和动物菌病的时空模式.
为了调查人类和动物血病发病率之间的关联.
使用时间序列模型预测人类菌病发病率.

主要方法:

利用来自官方人类和动物健康数据库 (2014-2022) 的月度监测数据.
进行了时空分析和时间序列线性模型,以评估人类和动物之间的血病关联.
使用季节性自回归集成移动平均线 (SARIMA) 模型来预测人类血病发病率.

主要成果:

观察到一个显著的差异,有4,688,787例人类病例与1,214例动物病例.
人类菌病发病率保持相对稳定,而牛和驼菌病则出现零星的峰值.
只有牛类牛病与人类牛病有显著的关联 (估计:0.355;95% CI:0.004至0.707).
萨里马模型以合理的准确度预测了人类的发病率,但动物数据没有提高预测性能.

结论:

肯尼亚现有的菌病监测系统存在弱点.
综合监控系统的全面评估和实施至关重要.
加强监测对于解决数据缺口,提高预测准确性和促进早期发现动物传播疾病至关重要.

关键词:

这种疾病的发病地址是:brucellosis.预测预测预测预测监控监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督监督时间序列时间序列动物性疾病 (zoonotic) 是一种动物性疾病.

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