160个国家的Hib疫苗预防疾病和经济负担:机器学习分析
Dachuang Zhou1,2, Siyang Chan1,2, Yimei Zhong1,2
1Center for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing 211198, China.
Vaccines
|December 24, 2025
概括
全球海莫菲勒斯流感b型 (Hib) 免疫接种已挽救了超过130万人的生命,并显著减少了疾病负担,在全球范围内证明具有成本效益. 然而,在低收入和中等收入国家,接种疫苗的不平等仍然存在,需要有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 血型流感b型 (Hib) 免疫计划已在全球范围内扩大,由Gavi.
- 本研究评估了Hib疫苗接种在1990-2021年期间在159个国家对健康,经济,公平和成本效益的影响.
- 此外,还分析了中国对Hib疫苗引入的未来预测.
研究的目的:
- 估计海莫菲勒斯流感b型 (Hib) 免疫接种对全球健康和经济的好处.
- 评估Hib疫苗接种计划的公平性和成本效益.
- 预测未来在中国引入Hib疫苗的影响.
主要方法:
- 采用随机森林模型来模拟没有Hib疫苗的反事实场景.
- 利用了来自世界银行,世卫组织和2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据.
- 通过比较反事实和实际结果,以及广泛的不确定性分析来量化利益,公平性和成本效益.
主要成果:
- 在1990年至2021年期间,Hib免疫接种在全球范围内避免了超过130万例死亡和9100万残疾调整寿命.
- 在非洲和低收入和中等收入国家 (LMICs) 观察到的健康和经济效益最大.
- 在所有分析的国家,Hib免疫是节省成本的,尽管由于LMICs持续的访问限制,它没有改善健康公平.
结论:
- 血型流感b (Hib) 免疫提供了实质性和成本效益的全球健康和经济优势.
- 解决LMICs在疫苗接种方面的持续不平等问题对于公平的全球健康结果至关重要.
- 这些发现为中国的政策制定者提供了有关未来引入Hib疫苗的好处的证据.
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