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亚极北大西洋的十年冷却可能加剧了近期西伯利亚东部野火
Yuhao Zeng1,2, Jun Wang3, Shangfeng Chen4
1Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature communications
|December 24, 2025
概括
西伯利亚东部的野火由于降雨量减少而增加,这是由于自然气候变化造成的. 这凸显了内部气候变化如何影响野火风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 西伯利亚东部的野火对空气质量和碳平衡产生了重大影响.
- 人为变暖是增加野火风险的已知驱动因素,但内部气候变化的影响不太清楚.
研究的目的:
- 将近期西伯利亚东部野火的升级归因于内部气候变化.
- 量化内部气候变化对野火活动的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用因果推断和路径分析进行归因分析.
- 大型组合气候模拟.
- 对降水趋势和大气循环模式的分析.
主要成果:
- 火灾季节降水量下降 (16毫米十年-1) 是燃烧面积增加的主要驱动因素,约占观察到的增加的42%.
- 这种降水量下降与北大西洋非强制性亚极性十年冷却有关.
- 冷却激发了罗斯比波列,导致东西伯利亚的反气旋循环异常.
结论:
- 内部气候变化,特别是与北大西洋冷却相关的降水变化,为近期西伯利亚东部野火升级做出了重大贡献.
- 这些发现强调了在评估未来野火风险时考虑自然气候波动的重要性.
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