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干旱对到2050年全球粮食安全的影响

Vachel A Kraklow¹, Kirsten Paff², Darin Comeau³

¹Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM, USA. vkraklow@lanl.gov.

Nature communications

|December 24, 2025

概括

干旱严重威胁到农作物生产和全球粮食安全. 这项研究模拟了未来的影响,确定了需要紧急干旱适应战略的脆弱地区.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
农业科学农业科学
食品安全研究食品安全研究

背景情况:

全球人口的增加增加了对粮食生产的需求.
干旱是农作物产量减少的主要原因,影响粮食安全.
预计未来的气候变化将加剧干旱事件.

研究的目的:

评估到2050年全球和国家级干旱对主要作物 (玉米,大豆,大米,小麦) 的影响.
制定一个粮食不安全指数,将干旱影响和社会经济因素结合起来.
确定最容易受到干旱引起的粮食不安全的地区.

主要方法:

利用基于过程的作物模型,集成在地球系统模型中进行影响评估.
分析了玉米,大豆,大米和小麦的干旱产量损失.
建立了一个粮食不安全指数,将作物生产影响与社会经济数据结合起来.

主要成果:

预计到2050年,研究作物的全球平均干旱损失将低于2%,大豆损失将达到3.6%.
地区差异很大,62个国家面临10%以上的生产损失,24个国家面临20%以上的生产损失.
粮食不安全指数强调南美,非洲,东欧和东南亚是高风险地区.

结论:

虽然由于干旱导致的全球平均作物生产损失似乎很小,但在国家层面存在重大风险.
有针对性的干旱适应措施对于减轻未来对作物生产的影响和确保粮食安全至关重要.
整合气候和社会经济数据对于准确评估和解决粮食不安全风险至关重要.

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