使用城市微气候中的蒙特卡洛模拟,对PET和UTCI热舒适度指数进行比较可靠性评估
Mohammad Ali Sargazi1, Abolfazl Heidari2, Jamshid Davtalab3
1Department of Architecture, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran.
Scientific reports
|December 24, 2025
概括
在炎热干旱气候下的城市设计干预措施在缓解热应激方面存在严重缺陷. 即使是最好的配置也只能提供20.56%的舒适度,这表明需要采取激进的适应策略.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和设计
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 在炎热干旱的城市地区加剧的热应激需要用于热舒适度分析的先进框架.
- 现有的城市设计干预措施往往无法提供足够的热缓解.
- 强大的方法对于评估这些干预措施的可靠性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为热干旱气候引入和验证基于可靠性的热舒适框架.
- 用概率方法评估六个不同的城市设计干预措施的有效性.
- 开发一种新的热舒适度可靠性指数 (TCRI) 来量化舒适度提供.
主要方法:
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟 (n=10,000) 进行概率性热舒适度评估 (PET,UTI).
- 进行了对参考条件的现场测量,各种植被的露台和树配置.
- 开发并应用了热舒适性可靠性指数 (TCRI),结合了舒适性概率和系统可靠性.
主要成果:
- 所有评估的城市设计干预措施都在提供热舒适性方面表现出严重的缺陷.
- 最有效的配置仅实现了20.56%的舒适条件,热失效概率在29.85%至65.25%之间.
- 全球热气候指数 (UTCI) 与生理等温 (PET) 相比,显示出显著更高的可靠性和性能.
结论:
- 目前的城市设计策略不足以应对炎热干旱环境中的严重热应激.
- 极低的TCRI值 (<5%) 凸显了系统性的失败和迫切需要采取激进的气候适应措施.
- 平均辐射温度和空气温度被确定为影响热舒适度的最有影响力的变量.
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