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经验驱动的感知与美国评估的热风险不一致
Jennifer R Marlon1, Nicolas Begotka2, Annie Preston3
1Yale School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA. jennifer.marlon@yale.edu.
Nature communications
|December 24, 2025
概括
极端高温带来的公共健康风险是可以通过适应来预防的. 这项研究揭示了评估的热风险和公众的看法之间存在重大差距,特别是在太平洋西北部和阿巴拉契亚地区.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 风险感知 风险感知
背景情况:
- 极端高温对公众健康构成重大风险,与高温相关的疾病和死亡事故在很大程度上可以通过行为改变来预防.
- 个人对局部热风险的看法经常与专家的评估有所不同,这阻碍了采取必要的保护行为.
- 了解这些认识差距对于有效的公共卫生干预和气候适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入和应用风险分析 - 感知框架,以量化美国各县评估和感知热风险之间的一致性.
- 确定专家评估的脆弱性和公众对热风险的看法之间的差异的地理差异.
- 为有针对性的气候风险沟通和政策制定提供经验基础.
主要方法:
- 开发了风险分析 - 感知框架,以比较评估的风险 (使用疾病控制和预防中心的热量和健康指数) 与感知风险 (来源于2018-2022年多年全国调查).
- 应用框架来分析美国各地县级风险感知对齐情况.
- 利用统计建模来分析影响风险感知差异的因素.
主要成果:
- 在美国许多县中,确定了评估和感知热风险之间的重大误差.
- 突出了太平洋西北部和阿巴拉契亚地区的特殊差异,表明公众对热脆弱性的专家评估落后于公共认知的地区.
- 证明个人经验,上下文线索和认知启发术显著塑造风险感知,往往导致低估与热有关的危险.
结论:
- 风险分析 - 感知框架为绘制和理解热风险感知差异提供了一种新的方法.
- 解决这些认识差距对于提高与极端高温有关的公共卫生沟通和适应策略的有效性至关重要.
- 系统的风险调整映射可以指导开发更有效的,地理定制的干预措施,以减轻与热有关的健康影响.
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