每年登革热强度的变化是由温度异常解释的
Abigail J Porzucek1,2, Rafael Lopes1,2, Yi Ting Chew1,2
1Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|December 25, 2025
概括
全球登革热病例正在上升,这使得难以发现激烈的年份. 一个新的相对强度得分 (RISc) 有助于标准化登革热强度,显示1995年,1998年,2019年和2023年是峰值年,温度异常是关键驱动因素.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 近几十年来,全球登革热发病率显著增加.
- 登革热病例的增加和加强的监测使得识别异常强烈的传播年复杂化.
- 现有的方法很难在不同的地理和时间背景下标准化登革热的强度.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种标准化衡量登革热强度的方法,即相对强度得分 (RISc).
- 分析长期登革热发病率趋势,并确定全球峰值强度年份.
- 调查与登革热强度升高相关的因素,特别是温度异常.
主要方法:
- 用一个层次化的贝叶斯鱼回归模型来分析来自57个国家的年度登革热发病率数据 (1990-2023年).
- 通过将报告的病例与模拟的长期趋势进行比较,计算出了一个新的相对强度得分 (RISc).
- 为了准确记录传染季节,南半球国家使用了7月至6月的年度时间框架.
主要成果:
- 该研究确定1995年,1998年,2019年和2023年是全球风险率最高的年份.
- 高登革热强度 (RISc) 显示出在多年周期中发生的趋势.
- 发现温度异常是RISc.升高的最强相关因子.
结论:
- 相对强度得分 (RISc) 提供了第一个标准化的全球指标,用于比较跨时间和地点的登革热强度.
- 了解登革热强度模式和驱动因素对于预测未来的疫情至关重要.
- 气候变化,特别是温度异常,在调节登革热传播强度方面发挥着重要作用.
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