在具有访客动态的传染性植物地理模型下推断流行病学参数
Albert C Soewongsono1, Ammon Thompson2, Michael J Landis1
1Department of Biology, Washington University in St. Louis, Rebstock Hall, St. Louis, Missouri, 63130, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|December 25, 2025
概括
传染病的传播是复杂的. 我们的模型显示返回的旅行者,而不是外国游客,是欧洲早期SARS-CoV-2传播的主要驱动因素,突出了宿主移动动态的重要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 植物地理学 植物地理学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 传染病通过宿主运动传播,使疫情的动态变得复杂.
- 区分游客和返回旅行者的病原体传播是具有挑战性的.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个包含病原体传播的访客动态的植物地理模型.
- 分析宿主运动在疫情期间疾病传播中的作用.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种基于流行病学隔间模型和访客动态的植物地理模型.
- 使用静态属性进行统计准确和计算可处理的近似.
- 将模型应用于欧洲SARS-CoV-2感染和旅行数据.
主要成果:
- 在欧洲爆发初期,SARS-CoV-2主要是由返回的旅行者引入新的国家.
- 与无限期旅行的模型相比,访客动态模型可能低估了疫情的大小.
- 主体运动模式显著影响疾病传播动态.
结论:
- 主机的移动,特别是返回的旅行者,在传染病的早期传播中起着至关重要的作用.
- 对宿主运动动态的准确建模对于理解和控制流行病至关重要.
- 纳入访客动态的植物地理模型为病原体传播提供了有价值的见解.
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