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政策制定者主导的场景和公众对话促进了对净零期货的能源需求分析
Maria Sharmina1, Oliver Broad2, John Barrett3
1Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
概括
政策制定者共同领导的能源场景分析显示,在净零目标下,可以实现18-45%的需求侧减排. 这种方法挑战了假设,并表明需求较低的期货比以技术为中心的期货更具成本效益.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 社会期货分析 社会期货分析
背景情况:
- 从历史上看,与供应侧净零技术相比,需求侧的能源削减得到的政策支持较少.
- 传统的能源场景分析往往缺乏政策制定者的直接投入,这可能会限制需求侧策略的范围.
- 实现国家净零目标需要探索除了技术进步之外的各种战略.
研究的目的:
- 编码设计和建模社会未来,以实现英国2050年净零目标,主要关注能源需求减少.
- 评估政策制定者直接参与领导能源场景开发的影响.
- 为了比较2050年以技术为中心的能源系统与需求较低的能源系统的成本效益.
主要方法:
- 进行了以需求为中心的能源场景分析过程,由政策制定者领导,并通过公众对话提供信息.
- 四个不同的社会未来被编码设计,描述和建模,以评估通往英国2050年净零目标的途径.
- 政策制定者的关注和观点被整合到能源场景的叙述和建模中.
主要成果:
- 与政策制定者领导一起开发的情景显示,能源需求减少幅度在18%至45%之间,超过了典型的政策预测.
- 预计到2050年,以技术为重点的能源系统的成本将比优先考虑降低能源需求的场景高出20-100%.
- 密集的共同创造过程虽然复杂,但促进了关于能源需求的关键对话,而这些对话往往不在学术研究中.
结论:
- 让决策者参与能源情景开发可以有效地挑战关于能源需求的传统政策假设.
- 与技术密集型方法相比,需求较低的能源期货为实现净零目标提供了更具成本效益的途径.
- 这种联合领导的场景开发方法提供了一种可行的方法,通过优先考虑能源需求减少来支持全球气候缓解努力.
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