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根据偏差纠正的CMIP6场景,在新疆预计的水气候变化
Yang Xu1,2,3, Shenzhen Tian1,2,3,4, Xueping Cong1,2,3
1School of Geography, Liaoning Normal University, Dalian, Liaoning, China.
Frontiers in plant science
|December 25, 2025
概括
像新疆这样的干旱地区未来的气候变化将带来显著的变暖和干旱风险增加. 更高的排放路径加剧了这些趋势,影响了水资源,需要适应战略.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 了解水气候变化对于干旱地区的发展和气候适应至关重要.
- 新疆因其干旱的气候和预计的气候变化影响而面临重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 研究2031-2060年新疆气象变量和干旱条件的时空演变.
- 根据三个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 分析气候预测,并评估未来的干旱趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用BCCAQ方法利用偏差校正的CMIP6每日气候预测.
- 应用ERA5再分析和地表站数据,用于稳健的气候建模.
- 分析了关键的气象变量和用于干旱评估的标准降雨-蒸发指数 (SPEI).
主要成果:
- 在所有SSP中预测显著的变暖趋势,在更高的排放场景下加剧 (在SSP5-8.5下高达0.76°C/10a).
- 观察到增强的潜在蒸发透气 (PET) 和广泛的干旱,特别是在新疆南部和东部盆地.
- 表示干旱风险加剧,空间模式为"干燥的南方-湿的北方",尽管在较高的SSP下降雨量有所增加.
结论:
- 气候变暖引起的蒸发需求是干旱的主要驱动因素,在许多地区取代了降水趋势.
- 确立了温度上升,增强PET和干旱风险加剧之间的明确物理联系.
- 为中亚地区的区域气候风险评估和适应策略提供经验证据,同时指出GCM解决方案的局限性和不确定性.
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