隐形流亡:向尼日利亚估计宗教流离失所的方法
Dennis P Petri1,2, John T Bainbridge2
1Faculty of Social Sciences, Latin American University of Science and Technology, Barrio Tournón, San José, Costa Rica.
Frontiers in sociology
|December 25, 2025
概括
这项研究使用一种新的代理模型估计了尼日利亚流离失所的基督徒人数. 由于宗教动机的暴力,基督徒社区面临不成比例的流离失所,这凸显了数据上的差距.
科学领域:
- 宗教社会学是宗教社会学.
- 强迫移民研究 强迫移民研究
- 人道主义数据分析 数据分析
背景情况:
- 根据IDMC,国际移民组织和联合国难民署的官方数据,国内流离失所者 (IDPs) 缺乏宗教分类.
- 有证据表明,相当多的尼日利亚境内流离失所者是基督徒,因宗教动机的暴力而流离失所.
- 缺乏有关流离失所人口宗教信仰的系统数据,阻碍了准确的人道主义响应.
研究的目的:
- 估计尼日利亚流离失所者的宗教信仰,重点关注国内流离失所的基督徒.
- 开发和应用基于代理的估计模型来推断流离失所的宗教组成.
- 解决主要流离失所数据集中关于宗教标识符的数据缺口.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个基于代理的估计模型,通过针对性暴力的模式推断宗教组成.
- 应用了来自非洲宗教自由观察站 (ORFA) 的宗教目标杀戮的州级比率.
- 通过模拟关系估计了2023年尼日利亚流离失所的基督徒的可能数量.
主要成果:
- 尼日利亚的基督徒社区经历了与社区针对性暴力有关的不成比例的流离失所.
- 西北各州 (卡西纳,索科托,扎姆法拉) 在基督徒流离失所方面表现出最大的相对差异.
- 博尔诺州和塔拉巴州的基督徒流离失所人数绝对数量最大.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了一种创新的方法,以近似计算国内流离失所者宗教信仰的未测量数据.
- 调查结果表明,宗教迫害在尼日利亚境内的强迫移民中发挥了重要作用.
- 强调迫切需要更多分类的人道主义数据,以便针对性干预.
关键词:
基督徒的迫害 宗教暴力 暴力 基督徒的迫害尼日利亚 尼日利亚 尼日利亚流离失所数据缺口 失所数据缺口国内流离失所者 (IDP) 是指国内流离失所者.对于宗教人口统计的方法论.代理估计的代理估计.宗教上的流离失所,宗教上的驱逐.更多相关视频
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