估计营养转型和消除饥饿对12个高负担国家的结核病的影响:基于模型的场景分析
Chieh-Yin Wu1, Chu-Chang Ku2, Christopher Finn McQuaid2
1National Taiwan University, Taipei City, Taiwan.
BMJ global health
|December 25, 2025
概括
改善营养和消除饥饿可以显著减少结核病 (TB) 的发病率和死亡率. 到2030年实现零饥饿,可以避免成千上万的结核病病例和高负担国家的死亡.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 营养科学 营养科学
背景情况:
- 营养显著影响结核病 (TB) 风险,低体重指数 (BMI) 增加了易感性.
- 全球营养转变和饥饿干预措施可能会影响高负担国家的结核病流行.
研究的目的:
- 模拟营养变化对高负担国家的结核病流行病学的影响.
- 根据各种营养情景,量化到2030年可能减少结核病发病率和死亡率.
主要方法:
- 针对12个高结核病负担,艾滋病毒流行率低的国家,开发了动态结核病传播模型.
- 这些模型纳入了BMI对结核病进展和治疗结果的影响,包括糖尿病调解.
- 模型使用历史结核病数据和平均BMI趋势进行校准.
主要成果:
- 到2030年,持续的BMI趋势可以使结核病发病率降低14.7%,死亡率降低15.6%.
- 到2030年实现零饥饿,可以将结核病发病率降低32.0%,死亡率降低37.3%.
- 通过联合努力,到2030年可以预防2060万例结核病例和540万例死亡.
结论:
- 营养改善和饥饿干预措施对于控制高负担国家的结核病至关重要.
- 迫切需要对可扩展的营养干预措施进行投资,以影响结核病流行病学.
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