综合体和袭击者:末世自我保护的战略模型
1ESPRI/ArScAn, Université Paris Nanterre, Nanterre, France.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 26, 2025
概括
精英为社会崩建立掩体可能是不理性的. 过度的防御可以引发攻击,这表明合作和减少不平等是比最大限度的"掩护"更好的生存策略.
科学领域:
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
背景情况:
- 社会崩的场景促使生存行为,包括精英的掩体建设.
- 这种被称为"准备"的现象可以被视为对生存威胁的自我保险.
- 这种策略往往涉及到对人类互动和防御的交易视角.
研究的目的:
- 为了检查精英掩体建设的合理性,以应对预期的社会崩.
- 分析防御战略,内部控制和外部敌意之间的相互作用.
- 引入对敌意及其对国防投资影响的量化衡量标准.
主要方法:
- 应用于生存场景的经济决策建模.
- 对内部控制,怨恨和感知到的外部威胁等因素的分析.
- 引入和应用"马基雅维利指数"来量化敌意.
主要成果:
- 对国防的过度投资 (掩体化) 可能会产生反作用,可能会引发攻击.
- 最大强化不一定是最佳的生存策略.
- 诸如合作,再分配和减少不平等等因素可以更有效.
结论:
- 在社会崩期间的生存可能更多地取决于合法性和互惠性等社会因素,而不是物理防御.
- 战略克制和促进合作可能比孤立和过度巩固更有益.
- 质疑精英掩体建设的合理性;提出了专注于社会凝聚力的替代策略.
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