各国在实现可持续发展目标方面的具体进展:过去,现在和前景
Qiang Xing1,2, Linlin Lu1,2,3, Li Wang3,4
1International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals, Beijing 100094, China.
概括
可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 的进展在全球范围内有所不同. 虽然得分较低的指标显示进步,但得分较高的指标,如医疗保健 (SDG3) 倒退,而大流行影响的进展不均.
科学领域:
- 全球发展研究 全球发展研究
- 可持续性科学 可持续性科学
- 公共政策分析 公共政策分析
背景情况:
- 可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 是关键的全球目标,其实施期限已经过去了三分之二.
- 关于可持续发展目标进展的具体国家数据有限,这阻碍了对成就和未来前景的全面理解.
- 评估SDG前后的发展轨迹和预测未来的结果对于有效的政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在167个国家对117个可持续发展目标指标进行比较分析.
- 预测到2030年全球实现可持续发展目标.
- 确定影响可持续发展目标进展和差异的因素.
主要方法:
- 对167个国家的117个可持续发展目标指标进行比较分析,评估从2015年开始的进展情况,并预测到2030年.
- 基于初始分数 (低,中等,高) 和COVID-19大流行影响的指标表现的统计分析.
- 计算预计的全球可持续发展目标得分,并确定可能达到或未达到目标的国家.
主要成果:
- 可持续发展目标的进展不均,受2015年初始指标得分的影响. 低得分指标 (0-50%) 显示出更多的进步 (25%),而不是回落 (16%),特别是在科学和制造业 (SDG9).
- 高分的指标 (70-90%),如免疫和传染病控制 (SDG3),表现出更多的回归 (16%) 比进步 (10%). 中等分数指标 (50-70%) 显示轻微回归.
- 疫情显著影响了低和高得分指标,而不是中等得分指标. 到2030年,全球可持续发展目标得分预计将达到63%,其中78个国家达到中等得分,12个国家保持低.
结论:
- 各国需要每年4%的增长率才能在2030年实现整个可持续发展目标.
- 专注于科学研究和制造 (SDG9) 与更好的SDG绩效相关.
- 对于具有高回归率的指标,特别是公共卫生 (SDG3) 需要有针对性的干预措施,以确保全球实现SDG.
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