人类行为如何在新出现的感染中推动症状和无症状病例的平衡?
Asma Azizi1, Zhuolin Qu2, Caner Kazanci3
1Department of Mathematics, Kennesaw State University, Marietta, 30060, GA, USA.
Mathematical biosciences
|December 26, 2025
概括
人类行为,如社交距离 (SD),显著影响流行病的演变. 避免有症状的个体可能有利于无症状的病原体菌株,而一般的避免可能有利于有症状的人.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 人类对疾病的行为反应会影响流行病的传播和病原体的进化.
- 人类行为所施加的选择性压力塑造了病毒生存策略.
- 了解行为适应是管理传染病动态的关键.
研究的目的:
- 研究人类行为变化,特别是社交距离 (SD) 如何影响症状和无症状病原体菌株的共同进化.
- 分析自发性SD在流行病期间对病毒变异的选择压力调节中的作用.
- 阐明人类行为与病原体进化之间的复杂相互作用.
主要方法:
- 利用一个决定性的易受感染-移除 (SIR) 模型来模拟流行病情景.
- 纳入自发的社交距离 (SD) 行为,包括一般的接触减少和有针对性的避开症状个体.
- 进行了全球敏感性分析,以评估行为参数对感染动态的影响.
主要成果:
- 人类的行为适应显著影响症状与无症状病原体菌株的流行率.
- 在SD期间均的接触减少倾向于有利于选择症状菌株.
- 针对性地避免有症状的个体促进了无症状菌株的选择.
- 行为参数对于控制流行病的总体规模至关重要.
结论:
- 人类行为是流行病期间病原体进化的主要驱动因素.
- 公共卫生战略必须整合对人类行为反应的理解,以有效控制传染病的传播和演变.
- 病原体菌株选择的动态是复杂的,并且非线性地取决于实施的社交距离的类型和水平.
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