过度使用CCS在电力部门脱碳化中的系统性风险
Bo Wang1,2,3, Fuhua Nie1,2,3, Zhaohua Wang4,2,3
1School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081 China.
Environmental science & technology
|December 27, 2025
概括
过度的碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 在中国.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 是深度脱碳的拟议战略.
- 广泛部署CCS带来的系统性风险,特别是在中国依赖化石燃料的电力行业,尚不清楚.
- 中国的权力转型需要仔细考虑技术权衡.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估过度采用碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 在中国电力部门转型中的影响.
- 评估与大规模CCS部署相关的系统风险和权衡.
- 为中国的脱碳努力提供可持续能源战略和治理信息.
主要方法:
- 采用了基于场景的综合框架.
- 将全球变化评估模型 (GCAM) 与用于定量评估的输入输出模型相结合.
- 分析了对发电,可再生能源容量,排放,空气污染物,就业和用水的影响.
主要成果:
- 过度的CCS部署将使到2060年热能发电量增加14.63PWh,取代风能和太阳能发电量.
- 导致到2060年二氧化碳排放量反弹4128万,到2100年可能超过10亿.
- 大大增加了空气污染物排放 (CO,NOx,SO2),减少了1100万人的就业,并在2060年消耗了中国每年用水量的25%.
结论:
- 在中国,过度采用CCS存在重大结构性权衡,与成本效益叙述相反.
- 强调需要全系统优化框架,以平衡脱碳目标与其他可持续性问题.
- 强调需要适应性治理机制,以实现长期能源可持续性.
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