在疫情的阴影下:非正式性和COVID-19在欧洲的传播
1DiSEGIM, University of Napoli "Parthenope", Italy.
Economics and human biology
|December 27, 2025
概括
该研究发现,较大的影子经济在第一波期间放大了COVID-19在欧洲的传播. 这种非正式性构成公共卫生风险,破坏了流行病控制措施.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的爆发,人们意识到了解影响疾病传播的因素的重要性.
- 影子经济 (非正式经济活动) 在公共卫生危机中的作用仍未得到充分探索.
- 非药物干预 (NPI) 的有效性可能受到社会结构的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查影子经济对欧洲COVID-19传播的影响.
- 为了测试这样的假设,即更大的非正式部门会放大传染.
- 评估非正式性对NPI的遵守和执行的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用混合经济学模型.
- 分析了COVID-19第一波期间来自26个欧洲国家的数据.
- 量化了影子经济规模 (占GDP的百分比和劳动力的百分比) 与新的COVID-19病例之间的联系.
主要成果:
- 在影子经济规模和新的COVID-19病例之间发现了显著的正相关性.
- 影子经济GDP的每1%增加与每百万新增每日病例的0.17%相关.
- 每增加1%的非正式劳动力与每百万新增的每日病例约0.26相关.
结论:
- 非正式性代表了疫情管理中的结构性脆弱性.
- 影子经济可以破坏制政策,即使是在具有强大的机构的国家.
- 解决非正式性对于有效的流行病准备和公共卫生至关重要.
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