景观火灾暴露的升级及其恶化的全球公平:相关的人口变化,社会经济水平和气候变化的作用
Tong Pan1, Hongjun Wang2, Jiyuan Chen1
1Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, 1088 Xueyuan Blvd, Shenzhen, 518055, Guangdong, China.
The Science of the total environment
|December 28, 2025
概括
全球景观火灾使数百万人暴露在危险之中,特别是在非洲. 暴露因人为因素而增加,增加了脆弱人群的风险,并要求紧急,定制的缓解策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 大规模的景观火灾对生态系统和人类人口构成重大全球威胁.
- 越来越多的火灾暴露带来了严重的挑战,但缺乏对人类累积暴露及其不平等性的全球分析.
研究的目的:
- 在2002年至2020年期间对人类暴露于大型景观火灾 (定义为辐射功率≥95百分位) 的全面全球分析.
- 调查火灾暴露,人口动态和社会经济气候因素之间的关系.
- 在全球范围内发现人类对大火暴露的趋势和不平等.
主要方法:
- 综合卫星衍生火灾周边线与人口动态数据.
- 将社会经济和气候因素纳入分析.
- 利用趋势分析和集群分析,根据风险概况对国家进行分层.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,直接接触大火影响了7.12亿人,非洲 (51%),亚洲 (32%) 和南美洲 (8%) 承担了最高的负担.
- 二次暴露 (在5公里缓冲区内) 比初级暴露高41倍,表明存在显著的级联社会风险.
- 非洲 (+1.94%/年),南美 (+7.93%/年) 和北美 (+3.39%/年) 的暴露显著增加,与人口增长和GDP有关.
结论:
- 全球火灾暴露率正在增加,不成比例地影响具有有限适应能力的脆弱地区,加剧现有的不平等现象.
- 人类造成的因素,包括人口增长和经济发展,与火灾暴露的增加有很大关系.
- 迫切需要具体的环境缓解策略,重点关注火灾易发地区的人口治理和发展中国家的气候适应性基础设施.
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