在COVID零后的中国,了解老年人对COVID-19疫苗的犹:一个预测建模研究
Enming Zhang1, Zhengyue Dai1, Shuhui Shang1
1School of Nursing, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, 200025, China.
BMC geriatrics
|December 28, 2025
概括
在中国,人们对COVID-19疫苗的犹不决.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 在中国老年人群中疫苗接种率不足,需要采取紧急行动.
- 调整零COVID-19战略强调了加速免疫接种的必要性.
- 老年人是COVID-19疫苗接种活动的关键人口.
研究的目的:
- 在COVID零后的中国老年人中确定COVID-19疫苗犹的预测因素.
- 开发可解释的模型,以指导有针对性的干预策略.
- 了解影响老年人接受疫苗的因素.
主要方法:
- 在中国15个省份对647名老年人进行横截面研究 (2023年1月至3月).
- 组 LASSO 回归用于特征选择,其次是后勤回归和随机森林建模.
- 用于评估变量重要性的夏普利添加物解释 (SHAP).
主要成果:
- 在老年人中,疫苗犹的流行率为53.3%.
- 减少犹的关键预测因素:信心,对COVID-19的恐惧,以及居住在中部/西部地区.
- 感知限制的增加显著预测了更高的疫苗犹.
结论:
- 对于COVID-19疫苗的犹是由心理因素,接入障碍和不断变化的风险感知影响的.
- 可解释模型有效地识别了老年人疫苗犹的驱动因素.
- 调查结果提供了针对性公共卫生战略的证据,以提高疫苗接种率.
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