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热浪和痴呆症:2019年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析
Yinhan Chen1, Yanan Luo2,3, Le Yu4,5
1National Clinical Research Center for Aging and Medicine at Huashan Hospital, Institute of Science and Technology for Brain-Inspired Intelligence, State Key Laboratory of Brain Function and Disorders and MOE Frontiers Center for Brain Science, Institutes of Brain Science, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
BMJ public health
|December 29, 2025
概括
在全球范围内,极端热浪加快了痴呆症发病率,在低收入至中等收入国家观察到的效果更强烈. 公共政策对于缓解这种日益严重的公共卫生问题至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加像热浪这样的极端天气事件的频率和强度.
- 热浪对痴呆症发病率的全球影响仍未得到充分研究.
- 了解这种关联对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估热浪暴露与痴呆症发病率之间的全球关联.
- 检查这种协会在不同国家和经济环境中的异质性.
- 为有针对性的公共卫生干预提供证据.
主要方法:
- 利用了153个国家 (1990-2019) 的每日最高温度数据和年龄标准化痴呆发病率数据.
- 采用混合效应模型和两阶段元回归来测试关联.
- 对高收入国家 (HIC) 和低至中收入国家 (LMIC) 进行了单独的分析,包括对美国和英国的支持性分析.
主要成果:
- 在热浪和全球痴呆发病率加速之间发现了显著的积极关联 (0.0436 SD).
- 这种关联在HIC (0.0294 SD) 和LMIC (0.0482 SD) 两种情况下都显著,在LMIC中效果更强.
- 经济地位影响了协会,在HIC中减轻了它,但在LMIC中加剧了它.
结论:
- 热浪在全球范围内与痴呆症发病率的增加有关,各国之间存在显著差异.
- 公共卫生政策对于解决热浪对痴呆症的影响至关重要,特别是在LMICs.
- 需要进一步的研究和有针对性的干预措施,以保护弱势群体免受与热有关的认知衰退.
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