谷物市场的价格趋同与季节性差异
Michael Olabisi1,2, Jiawen Liu2, Toyin Ajibade3
1Department of Community Sustainability (CSUS), Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, United States of America.
PloS one
|December 29, 2025
概括
季节性收获时间在尼日利亚市场上显著影响主食谷物价格. 同步收获加快了价格的趋同,而不同季节减缓了调整,影响了粮食安全战略.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 市场动态 市场动态
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 市场整合对于稳定的粮食价格至关重要.
- 收获时间的季节性变化可能会破坏市场效率.
- 了解这些动态是改善尼日利亚粮食安全的关键.
研究的目的:
- 调查季节性收获时间对尼日利亚市场主食谷物价格动态的影响.
- 分析同步与异步收获季节对市场整合的影响.
- 提供基于市场行为增强粮食安全战略的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用来自97个尼日利亚市场的每周价格数据.
- 采用双向面板数据设计来分析市场之间的价格关系.
- 在不同的季节性收获条件下,研究了价格收和调整速度.
主要成果:
- 同一个收获阶段的市场表现出更快的价格趋同.
- 不同步的季节性条件导致价格调整速度较慢,特别是当地大米和牛.
- 进口长粒大米全年表现出稳定的价格表现,不受当地收获周期的影响.
结论:
- 季节性收获时间是尼日利亚主食谷物市场整合的关键决定因素.
- 当收获季节在不同地区同步时,市场整合更有效.
- 研究结果为制定有针对性的粮食安全干预和政策提供了宝贵的见解.
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