基于多重线性回归和深度学习的城市热岛强度预测
Xinran Liu1, Xia Zhu1, Yuanping Liu1
1Department of Remote Sensing Information Engineering, North China Institute of Aerospace Engineering, Lang fan, He Bei, China.
PloS one
|December 29, 2025
概括
城市化增加了城市热岛效应 (UHI). 这项研究使用遥感和土地利用模型预测UHI强度,发现增加的建筑区将在2025年之前加剧UHI.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 快速的城市化推动了城市地区的重大土地利用变化.
- 城市热岛 (UHI) 效应对城市的宜居性构成重大威胁.
- 了解UHI强度和未来的分布对于可持续的城市发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来的土地使用变化和城市热岛 (UHI) 强度.
- 分析光谱指数与UHI强度之间的关系.
- 为城市规划和可持续发展提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种CNN-LSTM-Attention模型,用于远程传感的光谱指数预测.
- 利用CA-马尔科夫模型预测土地使用变化.
- 使用多重线性回归来分析光谱指数和UHI强度 (R2=0.7468,RMSE=0.0546).
主要成果:
- 预计到2025年,建筑区的增加将达到1.37%.
- 预计到2025年,热岛面积比例将增加2.97%.
- 鉴定了由于扩大建筑区而增加的UHI强度和度.
结论:
- 增加植被和水体可以有效地减轻UHI效应.
- 需要采取政策干预措施,以减少城市热量并提高宜居性.
- 通过知情地管理土地使用,研究结果支持可持续的城市发展.
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