测试社会功能模型:不稳定性是否导致阴谋论?
Mathew D Marques1, Matt N Williams2, Edward J R Clarke3
1School of Psychology and Public Health, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
The British journal of social psychology
|December 29, 2025
概括
这项研究发现,即使在生活成本危机期间,金融不稳定和阴谋论的信念之间也没有直接的因果关系. 在不稳定性和信仰方面存在稳定的个体差异,但一个方面的变化不能预测随着时间的推移,另一个方面的变化.
科学领域:
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
- 政治心理学 政治心理学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 关于阴谋论的传统研究强调了个人的心理因素.
- 新兴研究调查结构性缺点,如材料紧张 (不稳定性),作为潜在的驱动因素.
- 社会功能模型提出,不确定性通过不安全和机构不信任影响阴谋论.
研究的目的:
- 为了测试社会功能模型的命题,即不确定性导致阴谋论的信念.
- 检查不稳定的直接和间接 (通过机构不信任) 因果关系对阴谋论的信念的影响.
- 在当前的生活成本危机期间,利用强大的方法研究这些关系.
主要方法:
- 三项预先注册的研究采用了纵向观测设计 (3个月和11个月) 和一个跨组实验设计.
- 利用随机拦截交叉滞后面板模型来估计时间优先级和因果关系.
- 采用自我想象范式来实验性地操纵贫困.
主要成果:
- 在纵向研究中,没有发现证据表明,不稳定的增加暂时会导致阴谋论的增加,反之亦然.
- 随着时间的推移,在不稳定性和阴谋信念方面观察到稳定的个体差异.
- 对不稳定的实验操纵并没有通过减少政府信任对阴谋信念产生直接或间接影响.
结论:
- 这些发现并不支持金融危机在推动阴谋论的信念的过程中发挥直接的因果作用.
- 虽然存在稳定的个体差异,但不确定性和阴谋论之间的动态因果关系没有被检测到.
- 强调严格的因果推理方法的重要性,并建议社会功能模型的未来研究方向.
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