预测火山喷发使用火山-构造学地震性的重新缩放范围分析
Pérez-López Raúl1, Guardiola-Albert Carolina2, Felpeto Alicia3
1Departamento de Riesgos Geológicos y Cambio Climático, Instituto Geológico y Minero de España - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas CSIC, Madrid, Spain. r.perez@igme.es.
Scientific reports
|December 30, 2025
概括
预测火山爆发是一项挑战. 使用赫斯特指数分析火山构造地震数据,可以提前两天预测火山爆发,标志着一个关键的过渡点.
科学领域:
- 火山学 火山学是一门学科.
- 地震学 地震学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
背景情况:
- 预测火山喷发是一个重大挑战.
- 现有的方法包括地震性,气体排放和卫星图像分析.
- 重缩范围分析 (R/S) 量化了火山动荡期间的地震活动记忆.
研究的目的:
- 将赫斯特指数应用于火山构造地震时间序列,以预测喷发.
- 分析从抗持久性过渡到地震活动的持久性.
- 为了将地震数据与2021年塔乔盖特火山爆发动态联系起来.
主要方法:
- 对火山构造地震的赫斯特指数的计算.
- 分析GEOS图的时间演变.
- 地震数据与喷发动态的相关性.
主要成果:
- 在喷发前大约两天,人们观察到地震活动从抗持续性过渡到持续性.
- 这种过渡表明了一个不可逆转的点,即将爆发的爆发开始.
- 在喷发期间确定了五个深层岩注入,赫斯特指数趋势表明喷发停止.
结论:
- 赫斯特指数是预测火山爆发的宝贵工具.
- 地震数据分析可以确定喷发前的关键过渡点.
- 该方法有助于理解喷发动态和预测停止.
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