不成比例和决策:少数民族过度代表和警察在失踪人员案件中的风险评估
Fiona Gabbert1, Adrian J Scott1, Karen Shalev2
1School of Mind, Body and Society, Goldsmiths, University of London, London SE14 6NW, UK.
Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)
|December 30, 2025
概括
黑人在失踪案件中占比不大. 警方的风险评估可能会受到种族的间接影响,影响调查优先级和公平性.
科学领域:
- 法医科学 法医科学 法医科学
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 失踪人员案件的不成比例性引发了对法医和法律决策的担忧.
- 在英国的失踪人员统计数据中,与其人口份额相比,黑人人群的比例过高.
研究的目的:
- 分析案件特征和种族如何影响失踪人员案件的风险评估.
- 调查警察决策和调查优先级的潜在种族差异.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自英格兰和威尔士9个警察部队的18,266起失踪人员案件.
- 三阶段分析:描述性分析,跨种族群体的统计比较和预测性建模.
- 对人口,背景和风险相关因素进行控制,以评估种族的独立影响.
主要成果:
- 当控制其他特征时,种族并不能独立预测风险分类.
- 与黑人失踪人员相关的特征 (例如,年轻人,护理命令) 与较低的风险分类有关.
- 与白人失踪人员相关的特征 (例如,心理健康,伤害风险) 预测了更高的风险分类.
结论:
- 警方在失踪人员案件中的决策可能会通过相关特征间接受到种族的影响.
- 对于少数群体的风险评估和调查优先级的公平性存在担忧.
- 在失踪人员调查中需要以文化为基础,基于证据的框架,以确保公正和准确的警察工作.
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