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在中国西北部一个典型的人工绿洲中对生态风险的时空变化和动态场景模拟

Qi Song¹, Wanming Zhang²

¹School of Environment and Resource, Xichang University, Xichang, 615013, China.

Scientific reports

|December 30, 2025

概括

中国人造绿洲的生态风险最初随着土地回收减少,改善了稳定性. 然而,未来的预测显示,由于持续扩张,风险越来越高,这突显了干旱地区可持续土地管理的必要性.

科学领域:

生态风险评估生态风险评估
干旱土地的管理.
遥感应用遥感应用

背景情况:

干旱环境中的人工绿洲地区容易受到生态退化的影响.
这些敏感区域的长期生态风险评估有限.
了解景观动态对于可持续发展至关重要.

研究的目的:

评估1990年至2019年阿拉尔回收区生态风险的时空模式.
在不同的土地使用变化轨迹下模拟未来的生态风险场景.
为干旱绿洲生态系统的可持续土地管理提供见解.

主要方法:

合成了259张Landsat图像 (1990-2019) 使用每年最大的NDVI复合材料.
采用面向对象的分类和景观生态风险指数.
利用CA-马尔科夫模型进行未来风险场景模拟.

主要成果:

从1990年到2019年,由于土地回收将未使用的土地转化为耕地,整体生态风险显著下降.
高风险地区最初集中在西北部和塔林河沿岸,随着时间的推移而缩小.
1995年左右的风险突变点表明了向更有弹性生态系统条件的过渡.

结论:

适度的土地回收最初提高了人工绿洲的生态安全.
过度扩张可能会超过环境承载能力,导致生态风险增加.
可持续的土地管理对于减轻脆弱干旱地区未来的生态风险至关重要.

关键词:

CA 马尔科夫模型驱动因素驱动因素生态风险评估生态风险评估场景模拟的场景模拟.时间空间变化.

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