牛皮负担的全球趋势和未来预测:GBD 2021研究的见解
Xiaoyu Gu1, Xinquan Wang2, Yang Bin1
1Department of Dermatology, Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, People's Republic of China.
Psoriasis (Auckland, N.Z.)
|December 30, 2025
概括
牛皮的全球负担正在增加,男性和社会人口指数 (SDI) 高的地区的发病率更高. 未来的趋势预测持续增长,需要针对高风险群体进行有针对性的风险因素管理.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 皮肤病学 皮肤病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 牛皮是一种常见的慢性炎症性皮肤疾病,其全球影响尚不完全理解.
- 了解牛皮的流行病学对于公共卫生倡议至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1990年到2021年,牛皮的全球负担.
- 预测牛皮发病率,流行率和残疾的未来趋势.
- 确定高风险人群和地区进行有针对性的干预.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 的数据用于牛皮指标 (1990-2021年).
- 使用ARIMA模型预测未来15年的牛皮病趋势.
- 分析了人口统计和地区的年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR),流行率 (ASPR) 和根据残疾调整的寿命年率 (ASDR).
主要成果:
- 牛皮的全球年龄标准化发病率,患病率和残疾调整寿命年率显示,从1990年到2021年,牛皮的趋势在增加.
- 高社会人口指数 (SDI) 地区的男性和个人表现出更高的比例. 发病率高峰发生在55-69岁之间,发病率/残疾高峰发生在65-74岁之间.
- 西欧和德国的增长率最高,而东亚和赤道几内亚的增长率显著. 未来的预测表明,关键指标在15年内增长了8-14%.
结论:
- 全球牛皮病负担预计将升级.
- 优先考虑风险因素管理并专注于高风险子组 (男性,老年人,高SDI地区,西欧) 是必不可少的.
- 针对特定地区的战略和积极的医疗保健规划对于管理日益增长的牛皮病流行病至关重要.
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