基于关联规则挖矿和贝叶斯网络的危险化学品储存事故中关键的人类因素和路径的综合分析方法
1China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, Beijing, China.
PloS one
|December 30, 2025
概括
资源管理和监督等人为因素是防止危险化学品储存事故的关键. 识别关键事故路径可以提高化学企业的安全性.
科学领域:
- 工业安全和化学工程
- 人类因素分析分析
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 涉及危险化学品储存的事故带来了严重的风险.
- 人类因素被确定为这些事故的主要原因.
- 了解这些因素对于化学企业的安全运营至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 对危险化学品储存事故中关键的人类因素和关键途径进行深入研究.
- 通过全面分析,确保危险化学企业的安全运营.
- 探索人类因素之间的因果关系,并确定关键事故途径.
主要方法:
- 整合了一个改进的人类因素分析和分类系统 (HFACS) 模型.
- 协会规则挖掘和贝叶斯网络用于数据分析的应用.
- 对事故案例数据进行全面分析,以探索因果关系.
主要成果:
- 确定了六个高度敏感的人类因素:资源管理,组织过程,监督不足,未能纠正问题,身体/心理局限性和个人准备.
- 确定了导致不安全行为的三个关键路径:A1→B1→C3→D1;C1→D2;和A1→B1→C3→D3.
- 展示了一种新的方法,用于对事故中人类因素的定量分析.
结论:
- 该研究提供了一种数据驱动的方法,用于识别危险化学品储存事故中的关键人为因素和关键途径.
- 这些发现为加强安全协议和预防未来事件提供了新的视角.
- 综合方法为工业安全的定量分析提供了一种新的方法.
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