环境变化和印度尼西亚瘟疫疫情的风险
Ristiyanto1, Farida Dwi Handayani2, Sitti Ganefa Pakki3
1Research Center for Public Health and Nutrition, Health Research Organization, National Research and Innovation Agency Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|December 30, 2025
概括
由于环境变化和人类与动物接触的增加,印度尼西亚面临着可能的瘟疫复苏. 历史上的瘟疫爆发地区可能正在经历无声传播,构成未来的风险.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在历史上,瘟疫在印度尼西亚 (1911年至1956年) 造成了数千人死亡,观察到沉默的阶段之后再次出现.
- 在1968年,1987年和2007年发生了零星爆发,目前没有病例可能代表另一个沉默阶段.
- 几十年来,印尼政府一直致力于公共卫生工作,包括监测和媒介控制.
研究的目的:
- 分析印度尼西亚瘟疫复发的可能性.
- 调查环境变化和土地利用在瘟疫流行病学中的作用.
- 评估在历史爆发地区传播Yersinia pestis的风险.
主要方法:
- 使用多个数据库进行了全面的文献搜索 (1923-2019),包括PubMed和印度尼西亚政府的来源.
- 利用全球土地覆盖 (1992-2020年) 和Esri Sentinel-2 (2023年) 卫星数据来监测土地覆盖变化.
- 确定了七个土地覆盖类别:水,森林,被洪水淹没的田地,田地,城市,赤裸的地面和牧场.
主要成果:
- 在历史上瘟疫爆发地区发生了重大土地转型,除了东爪.
- 人类人口密度增加和土地转型增加了人类和动物相互作用的风险和可能的瘟疫复苏的风险.
- 传媒体和Yersinia pestis的动物宿主仍然存在,人类密度较高增加了接触风险.
结论:
- 印尼的历史瘟疫爆发地区容易发生长达数十年的无声传播时期.
- 土地改造和城市化增加了人类的存在,增加了瘟疫传播的风险.
- 目前印度尼西亚存在瘟疫复发的风险,需要加强对林地地区Yersinia pestis流通的监测,以便早期检测.
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