使用多算法机器学习框架对甲状腺癌复发的先进预测建模进行比较研究
Deepak Thakur1, Tanya Gera2, Vivek Bhardwaj3
1School of Computer Science and Engineering, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, 144001, Punjab, India.
Scientific reports
|December 30, 2025
概括
机器学习可以准确地预测甲状腺癌复发. 随机森林模型实现了98.26%的准确性,帮助临床医生识别高风险患者以进行量身定制的管理.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 机器学习 机器学习
背景情况:
- 甲状腺癌复发带来了重大的临床挑战,影响了治疗疗效和患者的长期结果.
- 预测复发对于优化患者管理和后续策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估用于预测甲状腺癌复发的多个机器学习模型.
- 确定用于早期检测高风险复发病例的最准确模型.
主要方法:
- 利用了383名甲状腺癌患者的现实数据集.
- 应用并比较了后勤回归,决策树,随机森林,梯度增强,SVM和KNN模型.
- 采用分层5倍交叉验证,与GridSearchCV进行嵌套交叉验证,类权重,特征选择 (Chi-square,Gini Importance),SHAP分析和模型校准 (同位素回归).
主要成果:
- 随机森林分类器实现了最高的预测准确性 (98.26%).
- 最好的模型表现出强烈的灵敏度和特异性,平均嵌套CV精度约为0.964.
- 模型校准显著提高了临床决策预测概率的可靠性.
结论:
- 机器学习框架显示了支持早期识别高风险甲状腺癌复发患者的巨大潜力.
- 这些预测模型可以帮助临床医生制定个性化的随访和治疗计划.
- 可解释的AI方法,如SHAP分析,为关键的预测特征提供了洞察力.
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