在南韩的SSP气候场景下绘制危植物分布,物种丰富性和气候避难所的地图

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Jae-Ho Lee¹, Eun-Seo Lee¹, Jae-Seok Lee²

¹National Institute of Ecology, Seocheon 33657, Republic of Korea.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland)

|December 31, 2025

概括

气候变化影响韩国危植物,未来的模型预测低地息地丧失,北方高海拔地区息地保留. 这凸显了针对性保护战略的必要性,以保护脆弱物种.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
保护生物学保护生物学
气候变化科学气候变化科学

背景情况:

气候变化对危植物的生存和分布构成重大威胁.
在韩国,受法律保护的血管植物面临着由于气候模式的变化而带来越来越大的风险.

研究的目的:

量化目前和未来的息地适宜性和物种丰富性,以确定韩国危植物的数量.
在不同的共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 气候场景下建模物种分布.
确定潜在的气候避难所,并优先考虑对脆弱植物物种的保护工作.

主要方法:

利用69种临灭绝的植物物种的随机森林 (RF) 物种分布模型.
采用1平方公里的国家气候数据作为基线 (2010) 和未来预测 (SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5).
使用交叉验证指标 (AUC,TSS,Kappa) 验证的模型性能.

主要成果:

目前,危植物的丰富性在白克杜达根山脉和济州岛上最高.
未来的气候场景预测,高富气地区的收缩,特别是在南部的低地.
北部和高海拔地区预计将保持更高的财富,特别是在SSP5-8.5情景下.

结论:

韩国危植物的息地适合性将在未来的气候变化下显著转变.
保护规划必须考虑气候影响的区域差异,并确定潜在的避难所.
该研究提供了关键数据,以优先考虑保护脆弱地区和物种.

关键词:

东亚东亚东亚东亚东亚在SSP2-4.5中使用SSP2-4.5.在SSP5-8.5中使用SSP5-8.5.气候变化的脆弱性气候变化的脆弱性保护优先考虑的保护优先考虑.息地的适宜性息地的适宜性受到威胁的植物群.

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