整合统计和机器学习方法用于意大利西北部的Salmonella enterica监测:一个健康数据驱动的框架
Aitor Garcia-Vozmediano1, Angelo Romano1,2, Mattia Begovoeva1
1Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale del Piemonte, Liguria e Valle d'Aosta, Via Bologna 148, 10154 Turin, Italy.
Microorganisms
|December 31, 2025
概括
食品中沙门氏菌的污染率较低,但在家禽和猪肉中最高. 综合分析揭示了关键的风险因素和下降趋势,改善了食品安全监督.
科学领域:
- 食品科学 食品科学 食品科学
- 微生物学 微生物学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 沙门氏菌 (Salmonella enterica) 是全球粮食传播疾病的重要原因之一.
- 有效的监测需要了解污染模式和风险因素.
研究的目的:
- 为了描述食品样本中的沙门氏菌污染模式.
- 评估一个综合分析框架,结合统计和机器学习模型.
- 识别关键决定因素并预测污染风险.
主要方法:
- 分析了2013年至2023年期间收集的41,945个食品样本.
- 应用混合效应模型和XGBoost算法进行预测.
- 使用SHAP分析来识别主导预测因素.
主要成果:
- 沙门氏菌的总流行率为2.20%,在家禽 (11.8%) 和猪肉 (7.14%) 中的水平最高.
- 污染风险在分销/零售阶段增加,并在2013-2018年间显著下降.
- 食品类别和生产阶段是关键决定因素;XGBoost显示稳定的预测性能.
结论:
- 禽类和猪类供应链表现出持续的脆弱性,特别是在生产后.
- 结合统计和机器学习的综合方法可以加强食品安全监督.
- 这些发现支持基于风险的,与"健康"一致的食品安全战略.
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