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评估干旱与西尼罗河病毒流行病之间的关联:系统性审查

Marie C Russell¹, Desiree A Bliss^2,3, Gracie A Fischer²

¹Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Hosted by US Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA.

|December 31, 2025

概括

干旱条件与增加的人类西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 病例有关. 季节性干旱指数显示出比每周干旱指标更强的关联,突出了公共卫生风险.

科学领域:

环境健康环境健康
流行病学流行病学
病毒学病毒学

背景情况:

人类西尼罗病毒 (WNV) 感染带来神经健康风险,特别是在50岁以上的人群中.
气候变化引起的干旱需要了解它们与WNV传播的关联.
现有的研究表明干旱和WNV之间存在联系,但缺乏系统的合成.

研究的目的:

系统评估干旱条件与人类WNV病例相关的证据.
分析研究区域,方法,干旱指标和WNV案例定义对观察到的关联的影响.
综合对干旱和WNV进行同行评审的流行病学研究的发现.

主要方法:

进行了对干旱和人类WNV病例的流行病学研究的系统文献搜索.
包括使用除降水之外的干旱指标的研究和报告带有误差指标的效果估计.
分析了跨越1999-2018年的9篇同行评审出版物,采用了各种统计模型.

主要成果:

使用季节性 (3-4个月) 平均干旱指数的研究报告了干旱和WNV之间的积极关联.
基于每周平均干旱指标的分析结果不太一致.
在包括的九篇论文中,使用了各种不同的研究设计和方法.

结论:

干旱和人类WNV病例之间存在着一致的关联,特别是当干旱被测量在季节性时期时.
了解干旱对WNV的影响对于公共卫生准备在气候模式变化中至关重要.
进一步的研究可能会阐明干旱与WNV关系的驱动机制.

关键词:

西尼罗河病毒病毒.干旱干旱干旱干旱环境指标环境指标蚊子传播的疾病蚊子传播的疾病系统性审查系统性审查

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