牛肉牛的约翰的疾病控制:平衡测试和屠宰策略与经济和流行病学贸易
Leigh Rosengren1, Steven M Roche2, Kathy Larson3
1Large Animal Clinical Sciences, Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5B4, Canada.
控制约翰的控制
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 传染病建模传染病模型
背景情况:
- 约翰氏病 (JD) 显著影响牛群的生产力和利能力.
- 牛肉生产系统中测试和屠宰策略的经济可行性需要进一步研究.
研究的目的:
- 评估各种约翰氏病诊断测试和屠宰策略在加拿大西部牛肉群的有效性和经济可行性.
- 为了比较不同的测试方法 (ELISA,个人PCR,聚合PCR),采样频率和基于风险的协议.
主要方法:
- 一个基于代理的模型 (ABM) 模拟了300头牛肉牛群中的JD传输.
- 一个部分预算模型评估了七个不同的测试和消灭策略的10年期净当前价值 (NPV).
- 敏感性分析探讨了不同市场状况,生产成本和购买库存中JD流行程度的影响.
主要成果:
- 与没有干预相比,所有模拟的测试和杀策略都减少了联合疾病的患病率.
- 在7个策略中,有6个策略导致了NPV的改善,表明了经济可行性.
- 每年的个人PCR测试提供了JD流行率降低和群体利能力之间的最佳平衡.
结论:
- 在牛肉群中,使用适当的测试和杀策略,可以经济地管理约翰氏病.
- 长期实施适应性战略提供了强大的控制选择.
- 策略的有效性受到采购动物中JD患病率的影响,更高的患病率降低了利能力.
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