肉毒的全球流行病学爆发来自开源情报,2017-2024年
Damian Alexander Honeyman1, David James Heslop2, Chandini Raina MacIntyre3
1Biosecurity Program, Kirby Institute, the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
The American journal of emergency medicine
|December 31, 2025
概括
开源情报 (OSINT) 在全球范围内确定了296起肉毒主义疫情,揭示了人类和动物病例的模式. 这种方法可以实时了解肉毒主义活动,特别是在传统监测有限的地方.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生监督 公共卫生监督
- 传染病爆发分析 传染病爆发分析
背景情况:
- 肉毒是一种罕见的致命疾病,由肉毒神经毒素引起,在人类和动物中发生全球爆发.
- 缺乏传统的全球肉毒虫病监测系统.
- 开源情报 (OSINT) 提供了对毒活动的实时洞察.
研究的目的:
- 评估OSINT在识别和分析全球肉毒主义疫情中的实用性.
- 使用OSINT数据来描述人类和动物肉毒病爆发的模式.
主要方法:
- 使用人工智能驱动的OSINT预警系统 (EPIWATCH®) 来提取肉毒主义爆发数据.
- 数据范围从2016年12月31日到2025年1月1日,包括疫情的详细信息,如位置,症状和传播途径.
- 使用STATA/BE 17.0.0进行统计分析.
主要成果:
- OSINT确定了296起肉毒主义疫情:259例在人类 (1097例,47例死亡) 和37例在动物 (27,537例,27,287例死亡).
- 人类爆发的最高发病率发生在乌克兰,俄罗斯联邦和美国.
- 食物传播是主要的 (79.5%),干鱼是常见的来源;常见的症状包括消化不良和恶心.
结论:
- 基于OSINT的监视提供了一种新的机制,用于了解全球肉毒主义模式.
- 这种方法提供了有价值的见解,特别是在传统报告基础设施有限的地区.
- OSINT 增强了实时监测和应对肉毒主义疫情的能力.
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