影响沙特阿拉伯荒漠化的社会经济和气候因素通过ARDL方法影响沙特阿拉伯的荒漠化
Faten Derouez1, Adel Ifa2, Abdullah Al Shammre3
1Quantitative Method Department, School of Business, King Faisal University, Hofouf, 31982, Saudi Arabia. fderouez@kfu.edu.sa.
Scientific reports
|December 31, 2025
概括
可再生能源和植被改善可以显著减少沙特阿拉伯的荒漠化. 然而,经济增长和二氧化碳排放加剧了土地退化,凸显了可持续发展战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 沙漠化是沙特阿拉伯日益关注的问题,影响着土地和资源.
- 关于该地区荒漠化驱动因素的有限时间序列数据研究存在.
- 经济发展与环境保护之间的平衡对于2030年愿景至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定沙特阿拉伯沙漠化的主要社会经济和气候驱动因素.
- 分析对荒漠化的短期和长期影响.
- 为减轻土地退化提供政策建议.
主要方法:
- 自动回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型应用.
- 矢量错误纠正模型 (VECM) 用于时间序列分析.
- 从1990年到2023年的数据分析.
主要成果:
- 可再生能源消耗的1%增加可以使荒漠化减少0.1003%.
- 植被指数的改善使荒漠化降低了高达8.7%.
- 经济增长和二氧化碳排放大大加剧了土地退化.
结论:
- 可再生能源和植被恢复对于打击荒漠化至关重要.
- 需要可持续的经济增长政策来减轻环境影响.
- 政策干预应优先考虑环境保护以及发展目标.
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