热带倾向的大西洋振荡有利于更多的台风向亚洲高度城市倾斜
Zeming Wu1,2, Chundi Hu3,4,5, Wenju Cai6,7,8,9
1State Key Laboratory of Ocean Sensing & Ocean College, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan, China.
Nature communications
|December 31, 2025
概括
一种新的气候模式,即热带倾斜的大西洋振荡 (TAO),可以提前四个月预测西北太平洋台风的轨迹. 这种振荡影响台风路径,可能会增加东亚高度城市的风险.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 西北太平洋台风向北极迁移影响东亚高度城市.
- 早期预测台风气候仍然是一个重大的科学挑战.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定一种新的气候振荡现象,用于早期的台风轨道预测.
- 为了研究这个现象在高峰季节台风轨迹上的预测技巧.
主要方法:
- 历史台风轨迹数据 (1979-2023) 的统计分析.
- 热带倾斜的大西洋振荡 (TAO) 的识别和描述.
- 在TAO和台风轨道变化之间的相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 春天的TAO解释了台风轨道变化的支配双极模式中56%的变异.
- TAO与海平面压力波动和喷流转移有关.
- 塔奥产生跨季度的海面温度异常,影响台风的方向流.
结论:
- 塔奥提供了强大的预测技能,可以提前四个月预测台风轨迹.
- 预计积极的TAO事件的增加可能会增强极向台风的迁移.
- 需要进一步的研究来解决模拟热带海面温度的模型偏差.
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