基于机器学习的模型使用动态甘油三糖指数预测心血管疾病:一个纵向研究队列查尔斯数据库数据库
Yi Yang1, Zen-Gao Yang2,3, Hong-Hong Zhang2,4
1Department of Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology of University of Technology Sydney, Syndey, Australia.
Journal of geriatric cardiology : JGC
|January 1, 2026
概括
监测动态的甘油三-葡萄糖 (TyG) 指数变化对于预测老年人心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险至关重要. 稳定高的TyG水平显著增加心血管疾病和中风风险,突出了针对性干预的必要性.
科学领域:
- 内分泌学 在内分泌学.
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 构成了全球重大健康负担,特别是在老年人群中.
- 胰岛素耐药性,由甘油三-葡萄糖 (TyG) 指数表示,是心血管疾病发展的关键因素.
- 中国健康与退休纵向研究 (CHARLS) 为研究中国老年人心血管疾病风险因素提供了有价值的数据.
研究的目的:
- 检查甘油-葡萄糖 (TyG) 指数的动态变化与45岁及以上中国成年人心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险之间的关联.
- 为了比较动态TyG指数变化与静态异常葡萄糖代谢对心血管疾病事件的预测能力.
- 确定与TyG指数动态相关的差异性风险的人口亚组.
主要方法:
- 利用了中国健康与退休纵向研究 (CHARLS) 数据的五个波浪,包括5,625名具有完整TyG指数和心血管疾病数据的参与者.
- 根据2011年至2015年的TyG指数变化,将参与者分为四组:低低,低高,高低和高高.
- 采用了Cox的比例危险模型和机器学习算法 (随机森林,XGBoost等). 分析心血管疾病风险和预测性能.
主要成果:
- 与稳定的低TyG指数相比,稳定的高TyG指数与发生性心血管疾病 (HR=1.18) 和中风 (HR=1.45) 的风险增加有显著的关联.
- 动态TyG指数的变化表明,对心血管疾病的预测值比单独的异常葡萄糖代谢更大,特别是在中风方面.
- 亚组分析显示,稳定高TyG组的风险持续升高,特别是在65岁以下的个人,女性,拥有高等教育,较低的BMI和较高的抑郁症得分的人群中.
结论:
- 三甘油糖 (TyG) 指数的动态变化与中年和老年人心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险有显著的相关性.
- 监测TyG指数趋势为预测和管理心血管健康提供了有价值的方法.
- 实施基于TyG指数动态的有针对性的干预措施对于降低该人口中心脏病发病率至关重要.
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