社交媒体可以可靠地估计失业率吗?
Do Lee1, Manuel Tonneau2,3,4, Boris Sobol5
1Department of Economics, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA.
PNAS nexus
|January 1, 2026
概括
我们开发了一个人工智能模型来使用数字数据跟踪失业率,改进了实时的美国失业保险索赔预测. 这种方法增强了传统的调查,以更好地做出政策决策,特别是在经济不稳定的时期.
科学领域:
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 数字追踪数据提供实时洞察力,但面临着可靠性问题.
- 对于经济指标的传统调查方法可能是缓慢而昂贵的.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种可靠的方法,用数字追踪数据来衡量失业率.
- 提高失业率预测的准确性和及时性.
主要方法:
- 微调人工智能模型以捕捉个人失业披露.
- 使用推断的用户人口统计数据进行分层后调整.
- 在国家,州和城市层面预测美国失业保险索赔.
主要成果:
- 由人工智能驱动的方法总是超过了行业预测平均值.
- 提高了对失业保险索赔的预测准确度,提前最多两周.
- 在稳定和动荡的经济时期进行有效的预测.
结论:
- 将人工智能与统计建模相结合,补充了传统的调查方法.
- 这种方法为知情政策制定提供了及时和可靠的数据.
- 该方法在经济不确定性和危机期间特别有价值.
相关概念视频
Estimating Population Mean with Unknown Standard Deviation
8.7K
In practice, we rarely know the population standard deviation. In the past, when the sample size was large, this did not present a problem to statisticians. They used the sample standard deviation s as an estimate for σ and proceeded as before to calculate a confidence interval with close enough results. However, statisticians ran into problems when the sample size was small. A small sample size caused inaccuracies in the confidence interval.
William S. Gosset (1876–1937) of the...
William S. Gosset (1876–1937) of the...
8.7K
Surveys
16.6K
Often, psychologists develop surveys as a means of gathering data. Surveys are lists of questions to be answered by research participants, and can be delivered as paper-and-pencil questionnaires, administered electronically, or conducted verbally. Generally, the survey itself can be completed in a short time, and the ease of administering a survey makes it easy to collect data from a large number of people.
16.6K
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
8.9K
The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
8.9K
Social Exchange Theory
333
As formulated by John Thibaut and Harold Kelley, Social Exchange Theory explains human relationships as economic-like exchanges that maximize rewards and minimize costs. This theory suggests that individuals engage in relationships to gain benefits and reduce burdens, similar to economic transactions. It has been widely applied to various types of relationships, including romantic, professional, and social interactions.Rewards and Costs in RelationshipsRelationship rewards include emotional...
333
Social Exchange Theory
39.4K
We have discussed why we form relationships, what attracts us to others, and different types of love. But what determines whether we are satisfied with and stay in a relationship? One theory that provides an explanation is social exchange theory. According to social exchange theory, we act as naïve economists in keeping a tally of the ratio of costs and benefits of forming and maintaining a relationship with others (Rusbult & Van Lange, 2003).
39.4K
Confidence Interval for Estimating Population Mean
8.7K
A point estimate of the population mean is obtained from a single sample. Such a point estimate does not represent a population well because it needs to account for variability in the population. Single point estimate can also be biased despite the sample being selected randomly. Thus, a point estimate is often unreliable. A confidence interval is needed to reduce this unreliability.
A confidence interval for the mean is a range of values that provides an estimate of the population mean. As the...
A confidence interval for the mean is a range of values that provides an estimate of the population mean. As the...
8.7K


