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在气候变化场景下,优化的MaxEnt模型预测了中国Bidens bipinnata的潜在适合息地

Yi Liu^1,2, Shimao Chen¹, Hong Zhang^1,3

¹College of Pharmacy, Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, China.

Frontiers in plant science

|January 1, 2026

概括

药用草本的Bidens bipinnata面临威胁. 预计在气候变化下,合适的息地将向北扩张,有助于保护工作.

科学领域:

生态建模生态建模
保护生物学保护生物学
生物地理学生物地理学生物地理学

背景情况:

传统的中国药用草本Bidens bipinnata因过度采摘和气候变化而受到威胁.
了解其分布模式对于有效的保护和可持续使用至关重要.

研究的目的:

在当前和未来的气候场景下预测Bidens bipinnata的潜在分布.
确定驱动其分布的关键环境因素.
为保护和种植策略提供科学基础.

主要方法:

与生物气候,土壤和地形变量集成的物种发生数据.
优化了MaxEnt建模以实现高预测精度 (AUC>0.9).
在未来气候场景下,分析适合区域,空间模式和中心点迁移的变化 (SSP1-2.6,SSP5-8.5).

主要成果:

目前适合息地的面积约为196万平方公里,主要位于中国中部,东部和西南部.
7月份的降雨量和2月份的平均温度是主要的分布驱动因素.
未来的预测表明,息地向更高度扩张,其中心脏位移受气候情景的影响.

结论:

预计在未来的气候变化下,Bidens bipinnata的息地将扩大,主要向北移动.
保护规划应该考虑这些动态的分布变化.
这些发现支持可持续的资源管理和这种有价值的药用草本的种植.

关键词:

拜登斯比宾纳塔是第二个.马克森特模型的模型.气候变化气候变化气候变化环境变量环境变量潜在的息地预测预测

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