圣诞树的综合风险评估方法与多源信息融合算法和改进的HAZOP方法相结合
Qiong Wang1,2, Huimin Li3, Guanlong Ren4
1School of Architecture and Engineering, Zhanjiang University of Science and Technology, Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China.
PloS one
|January 6, 2026
概括
本研究引入了一种新的海上圣诞树风险评估方法,它结合了GA-BP神经网络和HAZOP. 该方法准确地识别了高风险的安装阶段,提高了海底油气设备的安全性.
科学领域:
- 石油工程是石油工程中的一个.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 海上圣诞树在安装和运行过程中面临重大安全风险.
- 高可靠性对于海底石油和天然气生产设备至关重要.
- 现有的风险评估方法可能无法完全解决离岸业务的复杂性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证海上圣诞树的综合风险评估方法.
- 在风险分析中应用GA-BP神经网络和改进的HAZOP的神经网络的新组合.
- 提高海底石油和天然气生产设备的安全性和可靠性.
主要方法:
- 一种混合风险评估方法,结合了GA-BP神经网络和改进的HAZOP.
- 多源数据融合用于从离岸圣诞树安装和运营中提取风险数据.
- 风险发生可能性和严重程度的分类和判断.
- 模型培训和测试,以评估拟议方法的准确性.
主要成果:
- GA-BP多源信息融合方法的平均错误率为5.10%.
- 在圣诞树下降到水阶段 (关键重要性系数为0.24) 时,发现故障概率最高.
- 在生产过程中确定了36个中等风险点,没有发现高风险故障模式.
结论:
- 开发的风险评估方法准确地预测了海上圣诞树的潜在故障.
- 该方法为提高海底石油和天然气生产设备的安全提供了关键的技术支持.
- 现场测试验证了该方法的有效性,特别是减轻喷嘴阻塞风险,以注射酸盐抑制剂.
相关概念视频
01:17Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
281
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
281
01:19Survival Tree
382
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a...
382