确定将环境共变量与鸟类迁徙者群体动态联系起来的人口路径
Ellen C Martin1, Thomas V Riecke2, Pierre-Alain Ravussin3
1Swiss Ornithological Institute, Sempach, Switzerland.
概括
气候变化影响着鸟类种群,特别是长途迁徙的鸟类. 降水通过青少年和成年人的存活率显著影响了欧洲足飞种群的增长,突出了需要详细的人口路径分析的需要.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 预测气候变化对人口的影响需要将环境条件与人口统计率及其对人口水平的影响联系起来.
- 综合人口模型 (IPM) 提供了一个研究环境共变量如何影响人口率和人口增长的框架.
- 具有较短现象窗口的长途迁徙鸟类特别容易受到不断变化的环境条件的影响.
研究的目的:
- 建立一个贝叶斯式IPM为欧洲脚捕鸟使用超过40年的数据.
- 纳入环境共变量以确定人口变化的驱动因素.
- 分解沿着人口路径的差异,以了解环境共变量如何影响人口动态.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个贝叶斯集成人口模型 (IPM).
- 利用了40多年的标记回收,生育能力和巢盒占用数据.
- 采用差异分解方法来识别受环境共变量影响的人口路径.
主要成果:
- 降水是主要的环境共变量,显著影响人口增长率,通过明显的青少年和成人生存率发挥作用.
- 降水量增加对幼的生存率 (化后,过冬) 和成人的明显生存率产生了负面影响.
- 降雨对生存的负面影响与筑巢/化条件以及猎物的可用性降低有关.
结论:
- 仅仅将环境共变量与人口率联系起来就不足以预测人口层面的后果.
- 沿着完整的人口统计途径分解变异对于准确确定共变量如何影响人口动态至关重要.
- 这项研究强调了远程移民群体对特定环境因素 (如降雨) 的敏感性.
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