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芬太尼的致命足迹:预测过量热点的新框架

Deborah Okunola¹, Abdulazeez Alabi¹, Olajide Akinpeloye^2,1

¹Mathematics and Statistics (Biostatistics), Georgia State University, Atlanta, USA.

|January 6, 2026

概括

非法制造的芬太尼在美国导致致命的药物过量服用,死亡率集中在特定地区. 空间分析和预测模型识别热点,但数据验证和股权指标需要改进.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
流行病学流行病学
数据科学数据科学数据科学

背景情况:

非法制造的芬太尼是美国致命药物过量使用的主要原因,死亡率集中在特定的地理区域.
空间分析显示,过量使用负担集中在脆弱的微区域,而不是在不同地区均.

研究的目的:

通过使用各种数据流来综合关于小区域模式和芬太尼或合成阿片类药物过量剂量预测的证据.
将发现整理成一个框架,将映射,预测和尖端检测与运营响应与股权保障联系起来.

主要方法:

对美国研究 (2010-2025) 的叙述性回顾,检查死亡率,急诊室,紧急医疗服务,废水和社交媒体数据.
利用空间分析,小区域绘图,贝叶斯预测和现在预测模型来识别过量模式和预测趋势.

主要成果:

证据证实,芬太尼的负担强烈聚类,通过小区域映射确定了持久的热点.
贝叶斯模型提供短期预测,新兴的废水和社交媒体数据提供了早期预警能力.
在外部验证,校准报告,不确定性表征和股权敏感绩效指标方面存在差距.

结论:

提出了一个三层框架,整合绘图,预测和尖端检测,用于对芬太尼过量服用的操作反应.
该框架强调在监督和应对工作中需要明确的公平性和治理保障.
需要进一步发展,以解决数据验证和绩效指标的局限性,以获得公平的结果.

关键词:

过量服用芬太尼的情况.热点预测预测热点预测公共卫生监督公共卫生监督时间空间分析.基于废水的流行病学.

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