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Updated: Jan 13, 2026

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针对危害链风险评估的有针对性的加权网络方法,包括大雨引起的地质灾害和洪水
Jingjing Pei1, Caiyan Dai2, Tong Cui3
1School of Engineering and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China.
Scientific reports
|January 6, 2026
概括
极端天气事件越来越多地触发城市危险链. 本研究引入了基于网络的风险评估框架,以识别和控制复杂的灾害链,提高城市的弹性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 风险管理 风险管理
背景情况:
- 极端气候事件和城市危险链,如暴雨-地质危险-洪水等,正在增加.
- 传统的单一危险评估不足以理解系统性传播机制.
研究的目的:
- 使用定向加权网络构建一个新的危险链风险评估框架.
- 为了实现精确的城市灾害识别和控制,以提高抗灾能力.
主要方法:
- 事件树分析 (ETA) 确定了因果循环网络的23个关键危险节点.
- 贝叶斯网络量化了节点依赖性;改进了分析层次流程和脆性法评估了脆弱性和阻力.
- 一个多影响力矩阵计算了针对定向加权网络的风险权重.
主要成果:
- 北京门图古区的综合危害链风险值为34.23,这是计算出来的.
- 确定了危险链中的关键高风险节点.
- 定向加权网络模型允许对复杂的城市危险链进行动态和定量评估.
结论:
- 拟议的框架对评估复杂的城市危险链的传统方法提供了显著的进步.
- 这种方法为增强城市弹性和防灾战略提供了新的见解.
- 该模型支持精确识别和控制由相互连接的危险驱动的城市灾害.
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